NIDEA SEMINAR SERIES: Sub-national stochastic ethnic population projections using cohort change ratios – An application to New Zealand

Date Tuesday 19 March 2019
Time 1pm - 2pm
Where JG.17 (J Block, Ground floor)
Presenter Dr Michael Cameron
Contact Francis Collins
Contact email
Admission Cost Free


Ethnic diversity in New Zealand has increased over time, because of increasingly diverse immigration flows and inter-ethnic relationships.

Developing a better understanding of future ethnic diversity, particularly at the sub-national level, is therefore important. In this seminar, I report on joint work with Jacques Poot (VU Amsterdam) that extends earlier work employing a modified Hamilton-Perry projection method to data on small ethnic groups in New Zealand at the subnational level.

Specifically, we project group populations at the sub-national level for 16 regions for all groups with a minimum base population of 500. A stochastic element is introduced into the projections by: (1) using the variation in the time series of cohort change ratios over several inter-Censal periods; and (2) using regression methods based on the errors in projections excluding the most recent inter-Censal period. We find that the method performs reasonably well, and where point forecast results seem most unrealistic, those results tend to have the highest associated uncertainty

1 Department of Economics, University of Waikato
2 National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato
3 Department of Spatial Economics, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Speaker Info:

Dr Michael Cameron is an associate professor in economics. He is also a research fellow in the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), and a research associate of the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) at the University of Canberra. He was a PGDA Visiting Fellow at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University from 2015-16.

Dr Cameron received Outstanding Teaching Awards from Waikato Management School in 2009 and 2013, along with a Staff Excellence Awards for Teaching from the University of Waikato in 2009 and 2013. He was nominated for a National Tertiary Teaching Excellence Award in 2014.