NIDEA SEMINAR SERIES: Sub-national stochastic ethnic population projections using cohort change ratios – An application to New Zealand
|Date||Tuesday 19 March 2019|
|Time||1pm - 2pm|
|Where||JG.17 (J Block, Ground floor)|
|Presenter||Dr Michael Cameron|
Ethnic diversity in New Zealand has increased over time, because of increasingly diverse immigration flows and inter-ethnic relationships.
Developing a better understanding of future ethnic diversity, particularly at the sub-national level, is therefore important. In this seminar, I report on joint work with Jacques Poot (VU Amsterdam) that extends earlier work employing a modified Hamilton-Perry projection method to data on small ethnic groups in New Zealand at the subnational level.
Specifically, we project group populations at the sub-national level for 16 regions for all groups with a minimum base population of 500. A stochastic element is introduced into the projections by: (1) using the variation in the time series of cohort change ratios over several inter-Censal periods; and (2) using regression methods based on the errors in projections excluding the most recent inter-Censal period. We find that the method performs reasonably well, and where point forecast results seem most unrealistic, those results tend to have the highest associated uncertainty
1 Department of Economics, University of Waikato
2 National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato
3 Department of Spatial Economics, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Dr Michael Cameron is an associate professor in economics. He is also a research fellow in the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), and a research associate of the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) at the University of Canberra. He was a PGDA Visiting Fellow at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University from 2015-16.
Dr Cameron received Outstanding Teaching Awards from Waikato Management School in 2009 and 2013, along with a Staff Excellence Awards for Teaching from the University of Waikato in 2009 and 2013. He was nominated for a National Tertiary Teaching Excellence Award in 2014.